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Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund

Fri 16 Apr 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 30 · Data confidence: Low (promoted/new team)

Match Result (1X2)

Augsburg win: 42.8%

Draw: 19.0%

Borussia Dortmund win: 38.3%

Predicted: Augsburg

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 51.1%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 54.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.56

More corners: Augsburg (57.0% home / 43.0% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Augsburg

Yes

Probability Augsburg wins or draws: 55.5%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (43.0% model probability) Low

Favorite Avoids Defeat Augsburg win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (56.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.